After adjusting our last episode of Market Watch to allow time to discuss the rapidly changing purchasing environment, this month’s Market Watch returns to a more familiar format and it’s a bumper episode.
We reviewed the property market performance to the end of March 2026, discussed the market forces that will influence prices in the coming months, then put the focus on major infrastructure projects rolling out nation wide.
If you’re looking for where opportunities will arise, infrastructure is the signpost to key locations so we packed in as much relevant detail as we could.
Property Market Performance – March 2026
As always, my commentary as well as Scott’s is based on a combination of the most reliable data sources, coupled with what we’re seeing during our purchases across Australia.
Looking at the March data across the capital cities, the overall picture remains mixed, but the underlying pattern is becoming more consistent.
Sydney and Melbourne are still relatively subdued at a headline level. Both areas are either slightly down or broadly flat, though there’s a growing variation between the top and lower end of the market and that aligns with what we’re seeing more broadly.
In Sydney and Melbourne, more affordable segments are holding up far better, while the higher end of the market is where most of the softness is emerging. That split is important, because it reinforces the point that city-wide data is only part of the story.
Brisbane and Adelaide continue to show positive results, with Brisbane being a strong performer supported by population growth, relative affordability and consistent demand. Adelaide is still moving forward, although there are early signs that the pace may be starting to moderate.
Perth continues to stand out. Growth remains strong, supported by value relative to the eastern states and solid underlying demand. That combination is still attracting both investors and home buyers.
Darwin and Hobart have shown more positive movement this month after some inconsistency earlier in the year. These are smaller markets, so results can shift more quickly, but strong rental conditions are continuing to provide support. Canberra is tracking steadily without any major shifts.
When viewed together, a pattern is emerging. More affordable markets and price points are performing more strongly, while higher-priced segments are either flattening or showing mild declines. That distinction is becoming more relevant for buyers than the headline city results. See below for the summary table.
The rental market is reinforcing the same trend. Rents continue to rise across most capital cities, with particularly strong growth in Darwin, Perth and Brisbane. Even in Sydney and Melbourne, increases are continuing despite already elevated rental levels. This ongoing pressure is a reflection of limited supply and strong demand which continues to push prices up in many parts of the market.
What’s Influencing the Market
While the March data provides a useful snapshot, the more important question is what’s shaping the market from here.
At a global level, the ongoing instability in the Middle East is already feeding through to higher oil prices, which in turn is pushing up fuel costs and construction inputs. This is starting to show up in building costs with builders adjusting pricing and, in some cases, reassessing project feasibilities. The practical implication is that fewer projects may proceed in the short term, which places additional pressure on existing housing supply.
At the same time, buyer behaviour isn’t responding in a uniform way. There’s certainly a level of caution, particularly while interest rate decisions and federal policy settings remain uncertain, but there’s also a noticeable willingness among some buyers to continue moving forward, particularly where they see value or opportunity within specific segments of the market.
The next few weeks are likely to be important in that regard. The Reserve Bank’s position on interest rates, combined with the Federal Budget and any potential changes to property-related policies, will provide more clarity. Markets tend to pause while these factors are uncertain, then adjust once direction – good or bad – becomes clearer.
From a structural perspective, there’s still several strong forces keeping the overall market buoyant.
Supply remains constrained, with listings below long-term averages and no indication of a significant increase in forced sales. At the same time, levels of negative equity remain very low, which reduces the likelihood of widespread distressed selling. Combined with ongoing population growth and rental pressure, this continues to underpin demand in many parts of the market.
What this creates is not a single market moving in one direction, but a series of smaller markets behaving differently depending on price point, location and demand drivers.
For buyers, this reinforces the importance of looking beyond headline commentary. Broad forecasts can provide context, but they do not capture the variation that exists within each location. Understanding where demand is coming from, how supply is tracking, and how external factors are likely to influence those dynamics over the next few months is far more relevant than relying on past performance alone.
IN FOCUS : Infrastructure
In every episode of Market Watch we put the spotlight on a key aspect of the market. This month we focused on the coveted subject of infrastructure, because while it’s one of the most influential drivers of property prices over time, it’s also one of the areas where buyers are most likely to get caught out.
The mistake is usually in how infrastructure is interpreted. Most attention goes to the announcement, but infrastructure doesn’t influence the market in a single moment. It moves through a series of phases, and each phase carries a different level of certainty, risk, and impact on prices.
The announcement phase is where interest is highest, but it’s also where the least is locked in. Funding may be allocated and plans released, but there is still a long way to go before anything is delivered. This is typically where speculative activity starts, and while there can be upside, it relies heavily on what actually eventuates.
As projects move into planning and then construction, the risk starts to reduce. There’s more visibility around what will be delivered, timelines become clearer, and the local area begins to see real activity. This is often where broader demand builds, because the project is no longer theoretical.
By the time infrastructure is completed and operational, much of the early price movement has already occurred. At that point, the appeal shifts from future potential to practical use, and that tends to bring in a different group of buyers who are focused on lifestyle and accessibility.
Understanding where a project sits within that cycle is important, because it changes the way you assess both risk and opportunity. Buying purely on an announcement can lead to very different outcomes depending on what is delivered and when, while waiting until completion may reduce risk but also limit the upside with purchase prices being much higher.
You can watch or listen to the podcast (links can be found at the end of this article) for our views on the major infrastructure that will influence property markets around Australia, and check out the list below for the top infrastructure projects.
Top 12 Infrastructure Projects Impacting the Property Market
During the podcast, we also listed the top infrastructure projects in each State and Territory, and discussed the impacts of the following major hospital projects.
Choices
As always, there’s plenty happening in the property market. Whether you’re ready to jump in now or still getting ready, the information we include in Market Watch is designed to help you make the best decisions for your specific situation. click on the link below to watch the episode.
I would love to hear your thoughts on what we covered, and we’re always happy to investigate any specific topics so send me an email or reach out on our social channels to share your feedback. If you would like some help buying your next property, book in for a chat here.
Author: Debra Beck-Mewing
Debra Beck-Mewing is the Editor of Property Portfolio Magazine and CEO of The Property Frontline. With over 20 years of experience buying property across Australia, Debra is a skilled property strategist and buyers agent known for uncovering tailored opportunities — from family homes to multi-use investments.
She has deep expertise in advanced strategies including renovations, granny flats, sub-division, and development. A Qualified Property Investment Advisor (QPIA®), licensed real estate agent, and holder of a Bachelor of Commerce and Master of Business, Debra combines strategic insight with hands-on experience.
Debra is the creator of the Property Smart Track System™ – a professional property buying system that enables buyers to select, assess and buy property independently in today’s market. She also leads Buy Like A Genius™, a premium end-to-end buyers’ agency service for busy professionals seeking expert property acquisition without the stress.
As a passionate advocate for greater transparency in the property and wealth industries, Debra is a sought-after speaker, author, podcast host, and participates on numerous committees including the Property Owners’ Association.
