In this episode, Scott and I covered January 2026 market performance, what the latest forecasts suggest for the year ahead, and the most common strategies buyers are using right now to leverage into a dream home.
As always, our commentary is built on two things: reliable data (Cotality, PropTrack and SQM Research), and what we are seeing firsthand as we buy property in the current market. It was a bumper episode, so definitely check out the full podcast for deeper insights.
Market Performance
January is always a lighter month for sales, which means the data can look a little uneven. With fewer transactions, small shifts can appear larger than they really are. The clearer trend usually emerges once February and March activity settles in. Even so, the key takeaway for January is that the hot markets did not cool. They simply behaved differently depending on price point and local demand.
Sydney was broadly steady across the three data sets, hovering around flat, which aligns with what we are seeing on the ground. Buyers are active, but increasingly selective as prices rise. Melbourne showed mixed results, reflecting a more subdued overall tone with very localised variation.
Brisbane stood out as the strongest of the larger capitals, with solid monthly growth and clear demand, particularly for land. Adelaide remained positive overall, despite some softer asking price data. Perth continues to build momentum and is one to watch closely over the coming months.
In contrast, smaller markets like Darwin require careful interpretation. As we explain in the podcast, with only around 70,000 dwellings in total, Darwin is less than 10% of the size of Perth. So, strong percentage jumps can occur with limited transactions, and while short-term growth can look impressive, sustainable demand over the medium to long term is not likely with long periods of flat to neutral growth expected for Darwin in the not too distant future.
Update to the 2026 Forecasts
After the wildly positive market forecasts made in December for the 2026 year ahead, we reviewed the latest updates which ‘mostly’ took the recent cash rate changes.
The headline trend is still positive overall, with Perth and Brisbane expected to lead, and Melbourne and Canberra expected to be more moderate. Sydney sits in a similar band to Melbourne.
Of course, as we’re always saying – remember that high level forecasts are broad. They don’t account for suburb selection, property type, or your buying strategy. They are useful for understanding sentiment, but they do not replace strategy.
Mentionable News and What It Means for Property
Several developments are likely to shape the market over the coming months. The most immediate was the unexpected interest rate increase driven by inflation. Rate movements do not affect every market equally. Strong markets with tight supply can continue to perform, while softer markets become more price sensitive and open to negotiation.
At the same time, building approvals remain below the level required to meet national housing targets. Although approvals have improved on 2024 levels, supply constraints are still a structural issue. Governments are attempting to free up land and accelerate enabling infrastructure, but roads, services and subdivision works take time and typically lag behind demand.
Buyers should also be aware that expanded anti-money laundering compliance will apply more directly to property transactions in 2026, meaning more documentation and verification through the purchase process.
On the infrastructure front, Western Sydney remains a major focus, with the M12 motorway progressing and the Western Sydney Airport moving toward its scheduled November opening. Infrastructure does not lift every suburb equally, but where access and employment links genuinely improve, demand tends to follow. Check out the podcast for a full list of key infrastructure projects and their expected impacts.
INFOCUS feature
The Most Popular Strategies Buyers Are Using to Leverage Into a Dream Home in 2026
With every episode, we cover off a focused area or aspect of the market and this episode we featured the most popular strategies buyers are using to leverage into their dream homes in 2026. Scott and I took slightly different approaches, due to our different approach to property acquisition.
From the ‘new’ property perspective
Scott started from the base point of preparing to buy through to upgrading. Of course, your pathway looks very different depending on whether your end goal is a $900,000 home or a $1.6 million home. From there, he broke the strategies into three simple checkpoints:
1. Can you buy the dream home now?
Before creating a complex strategy, improve what you already control:
- Increase income where possible
- Reduce expenses and serviceability blockers (large car loans were his big example)
- Work early with a strong mortgage broker
- Consider guarantor support carefully and responsibly
2. Are you fully using government support?
While not all buyers can access government support, it’s worthwhile checking whether you’re eligible as many buyers underuse available assistance, including:
- First Home Super Saver Scheme
- Stamp duty concessions and grants
- Help to Buy shared equity schemes
Used properly, these can accelerate your entry without changing your long-term direction.
3. If not now, how do you build equity faster?
This is where property strategy comes in, such as:
- Rentvesting in more affordable growth markets
- Land and build strategies
- Duplex projects to manufacture equity
His clear warning was that these are not DIY tax exercises. GST, capital gains and ATO treatment must be understood before you start.
Using established property
Deb covered off the key approaches buyers are using existing properties to leverage into their dream home. This year we are seeing three main approaches.
1. Start Smaller and Upgrade
Buy a well-located unit within your budget, ideally in a smaller block with land value attached. Cosmetic improvements can add value. Over time, equity growth supports your next move.
2. Rentvest Strategically
Purchase in a strong growth corridor while renting where you prefer to live. Focus on:
- Solid land component
- Future development potential
- Strong rental return
Use either equity growth or cash flow to transition into your dream home.
3. Renovate and Step Up
Buy an older home in a solid location that needs cosmetic work. Live in it. Improve it. Then:
- Keep and leverage
- Or sell and upgrade
This is how many long-term property owners started.
The wrap up
Whatever approach you choose, the rules do not change. Use reliable, independent data. Validate what you hear. Avoid buying based on hype, headlines or one-off reports.
Model your numbers properly, including tax and transaction impacts. Know what the end result should look like before you make the first move.
And choose criteria that fits your goals, your risk tolerance and your lifestyle. The best strategy is the one you can execute well as opposed to trying to retrofit an approach not tailored to your situation.
If you want help getting clear on your strategy before you move, keep an eye out for details of The Property Frontline’s March workshops, designed specifically to help buyers make confident decisions before committing serious money and heading into the market without a workable plan.
Author: Debra Beck-Mewing
Debra Beck-Mewing is the Editor of Property Portfolio Magazine and CEO of The Property Frontline. With over 20 years of experience buying property across Australia, Debra is a skilled property strategist and buyers agent known for uncovering tailored opportunities — from family homes to multi-use investments.
She has deep expertise in advanced strategies including renovations, granny flats, sub-division, and development. A Qualified Property Investment Advisor (QPIA®), licensed real estate agent, and holder of a Bachelor of Commerce and Master of Business, Debra combines strategic insight with hands-on experience.
Debra is the creator of the Property Smart Track System™ – a professional property buying system that enables buyers to select, assess and buy property independently in today’s market. She also leads Buy Like A Genius™, a premium end-to-end buyers’ agency service for busy professionals seeking expert property acquisition without the stress.
As a passionate advocate for greater transparency in the property and wealth industries, Debra is a sought-after speaker, author, podcast host, and participates on numerous committees including the Property Owners’ Association.
