All cities expected to record a rise in dwelling prices over 2026.
Brisbane, Perth and Darwin housing prices are once again predicted to continue to record significant value increases compared to our larger capital cities in 2026. The three cities are tipped to record dwelling price rises of 10 to 16% according to forecasts released by SQM Research in its annual update – SQM’s Housing Boom and Bust Report 2026.
The base case forecast is for average national dwelling prices to rise between +6% to +10%.
Capital City Dwelling Price Forecasts 2026
This uptick in dwelling prices assumes:
- Population growth will likely moderate to about 390,000 people or 1.4%. This will translate into new demand for about 150,000 dwellings.
- Construction completions will rise to about 180,000 dwellings, creating a small surplus against a target of 150,000 for the year of about 30,000 dwellings for next year.
- Even if the dwellings surplus is achieved, Australia is still well behind the 1,200,000 by dwellings target outlined by the Federal Government by 2029.
- Interest rates will remain steady until mid-2026, thereafter, a 0.25% rate cut or two is probable though this assumption looks set to be challenged with rate increases becoming a possibility for 2026.
- Employment growth will slow creating a further rise in unemployment to 5%.
SQM’s base case scenario assumes a steady but sluggish economy for 2026, yet one that carries the momentum of the housing price growth recorded in the 2nd half of 2025 until at least mid-way through to next year.
The base case also assumes interest rate cuts for the 2nd half of 2026 will ensure ongoing price growth.
If such rate cuts do not materialise, the market is still expected to record dwelling price rises in each capital city but at a slower pace of growth. The interest rate cuts of 2025 plus the First Homeowner’s Deposit Scheme will continue to encourage buyers into the housing market.
“2025 has been a year of resilience for the Australian property market, driven by strong population inflows and initial monetary policy easing; plus, in recent months, the First Home Buyer Deposit Scheme,” said Louis Christopher, Managing Director of SQM Research.
“However, as we look to 2026, the outlook is shaped by a range of potential economic paths, from a sluggish economy, which is our base case through to sticky inflation delaying rate relief to a global slowdown; or even a robust economic rebound is possible. Our scenarios highlight the market’s sensitivity to these factors, with Perth, Brisbane and Darwin poised for double-digit growth in all cases due to their supply constraints and economic momentum.”
This year SQM’s Housing Boom and Bust Report also includes predictions on the holiday locations of the Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast and the Whitsundays and has its usual full breakdown of every postcode in the country covering current market statistics and its postcode investor ratings. The full report can be found on www.sqmresearch.com.au for $69.95.
Author: Debra Beck-Mewing
Debra Beck-Mewing is the Editor of Property Portfolio Magazine and CEO of The Property Frontline. With over 20 years of experience buying property across Australia, Debra is a skilled property strategist and buyers agent known for uncovering tailored opportunities — from family homes to multi-use investments.
She has deep expertise in advanced strategies including renovations, granny flats, sub-division, and development. A Qualified Property Investment Advisor (QPIA®), licensed real estate agent, and holder of a Bachelor of Commerce and Master of Business, Debra combines strategic insight with hands-on experience.
Debra is the creator of the Property Smart Track System™ – a professional property buying system that enables buyers to select, assess and buy property independently in today’s market. She also leads Buy Like A Genius™, a premium end-to-end buyers’ agency service for busy professionals seeking expert property acquisition without the stress.
As a passionate advocate for greater transparency in the property and wealth industries, Debra is a sought-after speaker, author, podcast host, and participates on numerous committees including the Property Owners’ Association.
