Deb and Scott recently wrapped up the latest episode of Market Watch. In this episode they covered the most recent property market sales data, and also a deep dive into the factors influencing the direction of the market for 2025.
In addition, Deb and Scott provided their recommendations for the best areas that will perform well over the next three years. Remember, property shouldn’t be purchased to be ‘traded’ so you need to consider longer term performance when selecting your locations.
If you’re thinking about buying property this year—whether it’s your dream home or an investment—check out the following review or alternatively watch the episode through this link.
How Did the Market Fare in December 2024?
December is always a bit of a quiet month in real estate, with many people heading off on holidays. This means less activity and fewer sales, which can skew the data. But that doesn’t stop us from digging into the numbers! Here’s how the major cities performed according to CoreLogic, SQM Research, and PropTrack:
Sydney
- CoreLogic: Down 0.7%
- SQM Research: Asking prices down 1.1%
- PropTrack: Down 0.3%
Sydney’s slight decline isn’t a shock—it’s December, after all—but the variance between these data sources is always fascinating. Are sellers starting to hold off listing? We think so. More on that later.
Melbourne
- CoreLogic: Down 0.8%
- SQM Research: Asking prices up 0.8%
- PropTrack: Down 0.6%
Melbourne is showing mixed signals, which might have to do with its higher stock levels. A fact to note: Melbourne’s listings hit a 12-year high in December with both home owners and investors selling out of the State. It’s an active market, with taxes and affordability presenting significant challenges.
Brisbane
- CoreLogic: Up 0.4%
- SQM Research: Up 0.8%
- PropTrack: Flat
Brisbane keeps its upward momentum, and we’re excited to see how the city benefits from the infrastructure boom tied to the Olympics. Spoiler: It’s going to be big.
Adelaide
- CoreLogic: Up 0.6%
- SQM Research: Up 0.1%
- PropTrack: Down 0.2%
Adelaide’s numbers are steady, but we have some thoughts about its long-term potential (or lack thereof). More on that in the forecast section.
Perth, Hobart, Darwin, and Canberra
- Perth is gaining traction, with SQM Research reporting a 2.7% jump in asking prices.
- Hobart had a mixed bag, with CoreLogic down 4% but SQM up 1%.
- Darwin showed surprising growth in asking prices (up 3.6% per SQM), but as Scott pointed out, small markets like Darwin can be heavily influenced by just a few big sales.
- Canberra remains as unpredictable as ever, with results ranging from -0.9% (PropTrack) to +1.1% (SQM Research).
What’s Shaping 2025?
We’ve got some big influences to consider when predicting this year’s market. Deb and Scott have covered off the key factors that will influence prices over the coming year. More factors are covered in the podcast but the big hitters are listed below.
1. Elections (Federal and State)
2025 kicks off with WA’s state election in March, followed by a federal election expected in April or May. Historically, buyer and seller activity dips around election time due to uncertainty. But as Scott pointed out, this year’s political landscape isn’t showing major differences between the parties, so property isn’t likely to be a contentious issue.
2. Interest Rates
There’s plenty of chatter about rate cuts this year, with some experts predicting the first one as early as February. But here’s the catch: the Australian dollar is weakening, and if it falls too far, the RBA could surprise us with another hike instead. Uncertainty is the name of the game, but one thing is clear—if you’re planning to buy, don’t wait for rates to drop. Get your purchases actioned now because the early part of 2025 will offer the best bargains due to the uncertainty. Just make sure you conduct quality due diligence to find the best bargains.
3. Immigration and Population Growth
Australia’s population is booming, with over 100,000 people added to New South Wales, Victoria, and Queensland last year alone. WA is also seeing growth, thanks to its job opportunities. More people = more housing demand, so this is a key driver for the year ahead.
4. Housing Supply and Construction Costs
Here’s the bad news: we’re not building enough homes. The government’s target of 1.2 million dwellings by 2029 is now pretty much impossible, especially given rising construction costs and planning restrictions. For buyers, this means good stock will remain highly competitive.
City-by-City 2025 Forecast and Best Buys Through to 2027
So, where should you focus your attention in 2025? Here’s our take:
Sydney
Sydney remains a strong performer. Infrastructure projects like the new airport and surrounding city developments make this a no-brainer. Plus, there are amazing opportunities to buy properties with value-adding potential—think duplexes or manor houses.
Melbourne
We’re split on Melbourne. High taxes and oversupply in some areas could hold it back. However, for savvy buyers targeting affordable new builds, there’s potential.
Brisbane and Southeast Queensland
This is the big one. The southeast Queensland corridor, including Brisbane, Gold Coast, and Sunshine Coast, is where the action is. With Olympics-driven infrastructure pouring in, this region is shaping up as Australia’s next premium market. Even Toowoomba is starting to heat up along with the suburbs between Toowoomba and Ipswich.
Perth
We’re cautiously optimistic about Perth. Employment growth and population increases are solid drivers, but you’ll need to be selective.
Adelaide, Hobart, and Canberra
These smaller markets don’t excite us. Adelaide and Hobart lack the population and job growth to sustain long-term gains, and Canberra’s reliance on government employment makes it risky.
Darwin Too small, too volatile, and too expensive to insure. Pass.
Final Thoughts
2025 has plenty of opportunities if you know where to look. Our advice? Start early, be strategic, and focus on markets that match your long-term goals. And remember, the right property isn’t just about the location—it’s about the timing, property type, and your personal circumstances. If you’re ready to make your move, let us help! At The Property Frontline, we’re here to guide you every step of the way.
About the author
Debra Beck-Mewing is the Editor of the Property Portfolio Magazine and CEO of The Property Frontline. She has more than 20 years’ experience in buying property Australia-wide and has extensive experience in helping buyers use a range of strategies including renovating, granny flats, sub-division and development. Debra is a skilled property strategist, and a master in identifying tailored opportunities, homes and sourcing properties that have multiple uses. She is a Qualified Property Investment Advisor, licensed real estate agent and also holds a Bachelor of Commerce and Master of Business. As a passionate advocate for increasing transparency in the property and wealth industries, Debra is a popular speaker on these topics. She is also an author, podcast host, and participates on numerous committees including the Property Owners’ Association.
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Disclaimer – This information is of a general nature only and does not constitute professional advice. We strongly recommend you seek your own professional advice in relation to your particular circumstances.
