With the Spring market well underway, this month’s edition of Market Watch revealed quite a few surprises and trends.  To ensure the market is covered from all aspects, property experts Debra Beck-Mewing and Scott Hochgesang reviewed the Australian property market’s performance data provided by Australia’s most trusted sources – Cotality (formerly CoreLogic), PropTrack, and SQM Research.

They also explored one of the biggest ongoing debates in property: regional versus capital city investments. Which locations are showing resilience? Which ones are flashing warning signs? And what’s driving the next phase of growth?

Price Growth: Strong Month Across the Board

September 2025 proved to be a solid month for property markets across the country.

  • Sydney led the way with prices up 0.9% according to CoreLogic, 0.6% from PropTrack, and a bullish 1.6% in SQM’s asking price data.
  • Melbourne showed moderate growth at around 0.5%, while SQM reported a slight dip of 0.1%.
  • Brisbane continued to impress, posting 1.1% growth via CoreLogic – what we’re calling a “red-hot market.”
  • Adelaide was steady, hovering around 0.9% across all three data sources.
  • Perth, unsurprisingly, stood out with CoreLogic recording a 1.6% jump – a figure tied to some major national announcements we’ll get to later.
  • Darwin also shone with 2% growth, making it one of the strongest performers in the nation.

Nationally, house prices rose by 0.9%, showing that demand remains robust even as markets adjust to tighter lending and limited supply.

What’s Driving Demand

Buyers in the mid-range of between $600,000 and $1 million are competing fiercely. On the ground, properties in this range are moving within days. In fast-moving markets like the South East Queensland , activity feels reminiscent of the COVID surge – high competition, quick turnarounds, and strong emotional buying.

If you’re active in these areas, be ready before you inspect. Have your finance in place, know your price limits, and be prepared to make an offer quickly.

Rental Market Tightens Further

Nationally, rental vacancy rates are sitting at 1.4%, an incredibly tight figure that’s putting enormous pressure on renters.

House rents continue to surge in Darwin, Perth, Hobart, and Brisbane, while Melbourne lags well below inflation at just 1.8%. Unit rents, once slower to move, are now catching up – a clear sign that tenants priced out of houses are turning to apartments.

For investors, that means opportunity. But as always, success comes from selecting the right pocket, in order to ensure you avoid over-supplied locations.

Key Headlines: What’s Shaping the Market

A few major developments made headlines this month – some with immediate effects, others setting up longer-term trends.

  1. Home Guarantee Scheme Expansion
    The federal government’s 5% deposit scheme is now fully operational, but the expected surge in demand hasn’t materialised just yet. Agents are hyping it up, creating perceived competition, but real buyer activity from the eligible group remains muted.
  2. Interest Rates Hold Steady (for Now)
    The RBA held rates steady at its 30 September meeting. While one bank still hints at a possible Cup Day cut, the broader sentiment suggests no further changes in 2025. Inflation remains sticky, and Australia’s economy is performing better than expected, making rate cuts less likely in the short term.
  3. Stock Market and Gold Surge
    Global stock markets are at record highs, gold has topped $4,000 an ounce, and Bitcoin is now well over the $100,000 mark. It’s a frothy environment. If a correction hits, expect a flight to safety – and property will likely benefit.
  4. Nuclear Submarine Base Announcement
    The federal government confirmed that Perth will host the new nuclear submarine base, a multi-billion-dollar project that’s already injecting $12 billion into the local economy. The impact will be significant with thousands of jobs, rapid infrastructure investment, and an economic tailwind for years. Unfortunately, that’s bad news for Adelaide, which had been vying for the project and now faces an employment setback.
  5. Superannuation Policy Changes
    In a major backflip, Treasurer Jim Chalmers announced that unrealised capital gains will no longer be taxed within super accounts over $3 million. This was welcomed by property investors and farmers who were facing liquidity concerns. The government will recoup some revenue by increasing taxes on super balances over $10 million from 30% to 40% – but overall, the change is seen as a positive for property stability.

Spotlight: Regional vs Capital – The Real Debate

With affordability tightening in the capitals, more Australians are eyeing the regions. But should you really make the move?

The Pros

  • Affordability: Prices remain far lower than capitals, allowing buyers to enter with smaller deposits.
  • Lifestyle: More space, larger homes, and quieter surroundings appeal to both families and retirees.
  • Rental Yields: Often higher than city averages, due to limited investor competition.
  • Dual Purpose Options: Many buyers plan to live in their regional investment later, especially for retirement.

The Cons

  • Limited Infrastructure: Fewer hospitals, schools, and major employers.
  • Job Diversity: Regional economies often rely on one dominant industry, increasing risk.
  • Volatility: Regional markets can experience short-term spikes followed by long stagnation.
  • Land Oversupply: Expansion land on city fringes can cap long-term capital growth.

Choosing the Right Regional Area

The key is selectivity. Not all regional areas are equal. When analysing regions, we look beyond the short-term data to the underlying fundamentals:

  • Population Growth for the Right Reasons: Look for demographic diversity, not just retirees or speculators.
  • Employment Diversity: More than one major industry or employer.
  • Government Infrastructure Investment: Schools, hospitals, and transport hubs are long-term growth triggers.
  • Proximity to Expanding Cities: Satellite cities that benefit from capital city overspill.
  • Retail Indicators: If you see a Bunnings, the area is building. If there’s a Starbucks, it’s already hot.

In summary, look for a mix of population, employment, and infrastructure – what we call the PRIM Index at The Property Frontline.

Markets We Love (and Avoid)

After reviewing all the data, here’s how the current landscape looks:

Solid Performers

  • Sunshine Coast – Now a powerhouse with its own CBD and hospital precinct.
  • Maitland & Newcastle – Diverse job base and coastal access.
  • Tweed Heads – Limited land, strong infrastructure, and a growing cross-border region.

Markets to Avoid

  • Lismore – Ongoing flood risks.
  • Townsville & Gladstone – Over-reliant on mining and speculative growth.
  • Tasmania – Low population growth and limited industry diversity.

Up-and-Comers

  • Toowoomba – Population 150,000 and rising; strong infrastructure pipeline.
  • Tamworth – Regional NSW standout with new hospital and university developments.
  • Geelong – Melbourne’s satellite city with strong employment growth.
  • Rockhampton – Diverse industries and long-term stability.

Wrapping up

Australia’s property market continues to power on – but the drivers are shifting. The gap between regional and capital growth is narrowing, and the smartest investors are those looking beyond the headline numbers.

Choose locations with real infrastructure, sustainable demand, and a diverse economy. And remember, whether you’re buying in Brisbane, Perth, or a promising regional hub, strategy will always outperform speculation.

If you’d like help identifying high-performing areas suited to your goals, get in touch with us at The Property Frontline where we help buyers purchase great property the easy way.

Author: Debra Beck-Mewing

Debra Beck-Mewing is the Editor of Property Portfolio Magazine and CEO of The Property Frontline. With over 20 years of experience buying property across Australia, Debra is a skilled property strategist and buyers agent known for uncovering tailored opportunities — from family homes to multi-use investments.

She has deep expertise in advanced strategies including renovations, granny flats, sub-division, and development. A Qualified Property Investment Advisor (QPIA®), licensed real estate agent, and holder of a Bachelor of Commerce and Master of Business, Debra combines strategic insight with hands-on experience.

Debra is the creator of the Property Smart Track System™ – a professional property buying system that enables buyers to select, assess and buy property independently in today’s market. She also leads Buy Like A Genius™, a premium end-to-end buyers’ agency service for busy professionals seeking expert property acquisition without the stress.

As a passionate advocate for greater transparency in the property and wealth industries, Debra is a sought-after speaker, author, podcast host, and participates on numerous committees including the Property Owners’ Association.

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