With the Federal Budget reforms legislated on 25 June 2026, we’re beginning to see the first signs of how buyers, investors and lenders are responding. While some markets are softening, others continue to perform well, making it increasingly important to look beyond the headlines and understand what’s really happening.
In this month’s Market Watch, Debra Beck-Mewing was joined once again by Scott Hochgesang to review the latest property market performance to 30 June 2026. Together they examined the capital city price results, rental market conditions and the major events influencing property decisions over the past month.
The topic for this month’s IN FOCUS segment is the first post-Budget Property Forecasts covering July 2026 through to 2027. This included a review of where the market is right now, a closer look at the forward-looking indicators that are likely to influence property prices over the coming year, and a comparison of two independent forecasts from Westpac and Domain.
House prices continue to diverge across Australia’s capital cities
As usual, the episode covered a review of the latest house price data from CoreLogic, PropTrack and SQM Research, highlighting an increasingly mixed performance across the country.
Sydney and Melbourne both recorded further price declines during June across the major data providers, continuing the softer conditions that have emerged over recent months. Brisbane remained relatively stable, Adelaide was largely flat, while Perth continued to demonstrate resilience despite some variation between the different datasets.
While the monthly figures point to a moderation in some of Australia’s larger capital cities, Debra and Scott discussed the importance of looking beyond the headline numbers. Key segments of each market are performing very differently, with more affordable properties generally continuing to experience stronger demand than premium-priced homes.
Buyer activity remains selective
One of the key discussion points during the episode was that buyer demand has not disappeared, as it has simply become more selective.
Debra shared that experienced buyers are becoming increasingly active as competition eases and negotiating opportunities improve, while many buyers who paused following the Budget announcements are now returning to the market after reassessing their plans.
The discussion also highlighted changing behaviour among rentvestors, particularly in Sydney, where some investors are now exploring whether current market conditions may allow them to purchase a home to live in rather than acquire another investment property.
On the supply side, Winter listing numbers remain relatively subdued, with many selling agents reporting that prospective vendors are preparing properties for the traditional Spring selling season. While total listings have started to build as homes take longer to sell, new listing volumes remain below longer-term averages.
Rental markets remain under pressure
As the Budget changes will hit the rental market the hardest, Debra and Scott took a closer look at this side of the property market. Overall, annual rental growth is strong across most capital cities.
Darwin, Hobart, Perth and Brisbane continue to lead annual rental growth, while vacancy rates remain exceptionally low across the country. Every capital city continues to record vacancy rates below what would generally be considered a balanced rental market, highlighting the ongoing shortage of rental accommodation.
The latest quarterly rental figures also suggest further upward pressure is building. While rental increases typically flow through gradually as leases reach their annual review dates, the underlying shortage of available properties means affordability is likely to remain a significant issue throughout the second half of 2026.
Market factors influencing property decisions
As always, the podcast also reviewed the major developments over the past month that are likely to influence the property market in the months ahead.
The Reserve Bank left interest rates unchanged at its June meeting, with attention now turning to its next decision in August.
Debra and Scott also discussed the Federal Government’s Budget reforms, which were legislated on 25 June. These changes include new taxation arrangements affecting residential property investors and restrictions on borrowing through self-managed superannuation funds. The episode also explored the introduction of Australia’s new anti-money laundering requirements from 1 July, together with the potential impact from ongoing conflict in the Middle East on inflation and fuel prices.
IN FOCUS – The First Post-Budget Property Forecasts
The focus of this month’s IN FOCUS segment was the property market forecast for the period from July 2026 through to June 2027.
Before reviewing the latest forecasts from Westpac and Domain, Debra and Scott examined where Australia’s property market currently sits. This included a review of how far each capital city is from its most recent market peak, how different price segments are performing, and why historical market corrections should be viewed as part of the normal property cycle.
The discussion then shifted to the indicators that are more likely to influence future market performance. While auction clearance rates often dominate media headlines, Debra and Scott explained why property listings (properties available for purchase) remains one of the most important indicators to watch. Listing volumes remain below historical averages, while dwelling commencements continue to fall well short of the levels required to meet the Federal Government’s housing targets, reinforcing the longer-term imbalance between supply and demand.
The segment concluded with a comparison of the first post-Budget property forecasts from Westpac and Domain. Although the forecasts differ in some areas, several common themes emerged from the discussion:
- Sydney and Melbourne are expected to remain the weakest-performing capital city markets over the next 12 months though price recovery is expected in 2027.
- Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide are forecast to continue recording positive growth, although at a more moderate pace than experienced in recent years.
- Unit markets are expected to perform relatively well in several cities as affordability pressures continue to influence buyer demand.
- Both forecasts point towards a highly segmented property market, where local conditions and individual market sectors are likely to perform very differently.
Wrapping Up
This month’s Market Watch reinforced that Australia’s property market is becoming increasingly nuanced. Rather than relying on broad city-wide averages or media headlines, buyers need to understand the individual factors influencing their own market, property type and buying strategy.
As Debra and Scott concluded, understanding the data, filtering out market noise and making decisions based on reliable information remains one of the best ways for buyers to navigate an increasingly complex property market.
Watch the full July 2026 Market Watch episode below for a detailed discussion of the latest market data, supporting charts and the complete Property Market Forecast 2026–27.
Author: Debra Beck-Mewing
Debra Beck-Mewing is the Editor of Property Portfolio Magazine and CEO of The Property Frontline. With over 20 years of experience buying property across Australia, Debra is a skilled property strategist and buyers agent known for uncovering tailored opportunities — from family homes to multi-use investments.
She has deep expertise in advanced strategies including renovations, granny flats, sub-division, and development. A Qualified Property Investment Advisor (QPIA®), licensed real estate agent, and holder of a Bachelor of Commerce and Master of Business, Debra combines strategic insight with hands-on experience.
Debra is the creator of the Property Smart Track System™ – a professional property buying system that enables buyers to select, assess and buy property independently in today’s market. She also leads Buy Like A Genius™, a premium end-to-end buyers’ agency service for busy professionals seeking expert property acquisition without the stress.
As a passionate advocate for greater transparency in the property and wealth industries, Debra is a sought-after speaker, author, podcast host, and participates on numerous committees including the Property Owners’ Association.
