Spring is here, and with it comes one of the busiest periods in Australia’s property market. In this month’s Market Watch, Scott Hochgesang and I take a look at how the market performed through August, what’s driving buyer and seller behaviour right now, and the big headline: changes to the Home Guarantee Scheme that will not only reshape how first home buyers enter the market, it will have ripple effects for all property buyers and sellers.
August Market Performance: The Numbers
We always start with the data, drawing from trusted sources like CoreLogic, PropTrack and SQM Research.
- Sydney showed solid growth, with prices rising around 0.9% in August. SQM’s asking price data was even stronger, suggesting vendor confidence is growing.
- Melbourne was flatter, hovering around 0.4%. After a run of stronger months earlier this year, growth seems to be stalling — though sub-markets (some areas at suburb level) are still moving differently.
- Brisbane is really starting to shine, leading with 1.2% growth in CoreLogic’s index. Brisbane was the best performer across the country during August. Olympic buzz and interstate migration are fuelling demand.
- Adelaide delivered another steady result with 0.9% growth.
Other capitals were mixed:
- Perth remains strong, up more than 1% across most datasets.
- Hobart showed its first signs of cooling after a long run of gains.
- Darwin is still recording outsized monthly increases, though sustainability is questionable.
- Canberra remains in moderate growth territory.
When we look at the trendlines, Darwin has been the standout over the past year, but Brisbane is now breaking away as the market to watch.
On-the-Ground Insights
The numbers are only part of the story. Here’s what Scott and I are seeing on the frontline / in the field:
- Brisbane is experiencing huge demand for land and house-and-land packages, especially in Moreton Bay. Rooming house projects that used to cost around $1.1m are now pushing well past $1.4m, a sign of both rising land values and builder costs.
- Melbourne developers are deliberately holding back land releases, creating scarcity and tightening the market, even though overall growth looks flat.
- Gold Coast & Sydney are showing lightning-fast buyer demand. We recently inspected a property priced at $1.1m–$1.2m; within days, 70+ groups had come through and multiple offers pushed it well above $1.3m. This quickening of the market is happening across many suburbs.
Rental Market Update
Rents are stabilising in many capitals, but there are still hotspots to note:
- Darwin stands out with house rents up 6% and unit rents up 9% over the past year.
- Perth and Brisbane rents remain extremely high, suggesting another round of growth could be on the way.
- Sydney and Melbourne are flatter, with rental increases closer to inflation.
While there’s not too much upward price movement, affordability pressures are continuing to push tenants into units, particularly in smaller capitals where house rents are becoming unaffordable.
The Big News: Home Guarantee Scheme Changes
In every episode of Market Watch, we cover the key pieces of news that will impact the market. Normally, there’s around five or more big pieces of news . . but in August there was really only one main headline – the changes to the Federal Governments home buyer assistance.
The big shake-up was the Federal Government’s surprise decision to bring forward changes to the Home Guarantee Scheme. Originally planned for January 2026, the scheme will now start 1 October 2025 – right in the middle of the Spring selling season.
What’s Changed?
- Purchase price caps increased significantly (e.g. Sydney jumped from $900k to $1.5m; Brisbane from $700k to $1m).
- Income caps have been removed, so high-earning first home buyers can now access the scheme.
- No annual cap on places – previously it was around 35,000 per year.
- The biggest headline though is that buyers can now enter the market with just a 5% deposit.
On the downside, stamp duty caps haven’t changed. These remain state-controlled and are far lower than the new purchase caps. For example, in NSW you can buy up to $1.5m under the scheme, but the stamp duty concession still cuts out at $800k. So a first home buyer purchasing at $1.1m could qualify for the scheme, but would pay full stamp duty.
This creates a confusing ‘give with one hand, take with the other’ scenario, especially in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. See below for a summary of the new price caps and stamp duty limits.
What Buyers Can Expect
With higher purchase caps, first home buyers technically have more choice to purchase houses, and a larger range of units now easily fit under the new purchase cap limits.
CoreLogic’s mapping shows that in Sydney, suburbs across the Central Coast, western Sydney, and southwest corridors easily now fall under the new limits.
In Melbourne, large parts of the west and southeast are included, while in Perth and Adelaide, many coastal and middle-ring suburbs are still accessible.
Check out the podcast for a visual of all capital areas along with the suburbs that fall under the cap.
But affordability is relative. In many cases, buyers may find themselves stretching to the new limits and still dealing with hefty stamp duty bills. The risk is that prices at key thresholds (like $1m in Brisbane or $1.5m in Sydney) could be pushed up further.
Key Takeaways
- Spring 2025 is shaping up to be intense. Buyer activity is already strong, and the sudden Home Guarantee changes will only add fuel at key price points.
- If you quality for the any of the buyer schemes, don’t overlook stamp duty. It can add tens of thousands to your upfront costs. Always run the numbers carefully.
- Focus on long-term fundamentals. Choose properties that will hold value and deliver future growth, not just what fits under today’s scheme caps.
- Lean on expert guidance. The schemes can be difficult to navigate but a good finance broker should understand the technical details of these schemes. And of course, having buyer support means you can move quickly without making expensive mistakes.
Final Thoughts
The property market is moving fast, and government policy shifts are creating both opportunities and pitfalls. If you’re a first home buyer, it’s essential to cut through the headlines, understand the fine print, and make decisions based on your long-term goals rather than short-term incentives.
At The Property Frontline, our Property Smart Track is designed exactly for this – giving you the tools, insights and strategies to buy smarter, whether you’re entering the market for the first time or adding to your portfolio.
Our next intake for the Property Smart Track opens in October, just in time for this Spring’s market. If you’d like to know more, keep an eye out for details or get in touch with us directly.
Watch the full Market Watch Episode here.
Author: Debra Beck-Mewing
Debra Beck-Mewing is the Editor of Property Portfolio Magazine and CEO of The Property Frontline. With over 20 years of experience buying property across Australia, Debra is a skilled property strategist and buyers agent known for uncovering tailored opportunities — from family homes to multi-use investments.
She has deep expertise in advanced strategies including renovations, granny flats, sub-division, and development. A Qualified Property Investment Advisor (QPIA®), licensed real estate agent, and holder of a Bachelor of Commerce and Master of Business, Debra combines strategic insight with hands-on experience.
Debra is the creator of the Property Smart Track System™ – a professional property buying system that enables buyers to select, assess and buy property independently in today’s market. She also leads Buy Like A Genius™, a premium end-to-end buyers’ agency service for busy professionals seeking expert property acquisition without the stress.
As a passionate advocate for greater transparency in the property and wealth industries, Debra is a sought-after speaker, author, podcast host, and participates on numerous committees including the Property Owners’ Association.
